What ERCOT knows and isn't telling us

During the cold snap that began Dec. 22, 35-40% of the coal and gas power plants in ERCOT were offline for at least some period of time, many for the entire time. 

Had snow and ice accompanied the cold—as happened with Winter Storm Uri in 2021—the data shows that Texas again would have faced an unacceptably high risk of outages. Pablo Vegas, CEO of ERCOT, even sent a letter to the U.S. Secretary of Energy, asking her to “find that an electric reliability emergency exists within the State of Texas.”

Yet in prepared remarks Jan. 12 to the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT), ERCOT VP Dan Woodfin described December’s scare as “a non-event.” Forecasts by the state’s electric grid operator underestimated Texas’ energy demand 23% during parts of the freeze — and yet Woodfin said ERCOT’s “under forecast had no impact on reliability.”